1. Utazi CE, Thorley J, Alegana VA, Ferrari MJ, Nilsen K, Takahashi S, Metcalf CJE, Lessler J, Tatem AJ. 2018. A spatial regression model for the disaggregation of areas unit based data to high-resolution grids with application to vaccination coverage mapping. Statistical Methods in Medical Research https://doi.org/10.1177/0962280218797362

  2. Prada JM, Metcalf CJE, Ferrari MJ. 2018. Improving measles incidence using age-structured serological data. Epidemiology and Infection 146(13) 1699-1706.

  3. Tao Y, Shea K, Ferrari MJ. 2018. Logistical constraints lead to intermediate an optimum in outbreak response vaccination. PLoS Computational Biology https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1006161

  4. Probert WJM, Jewell CP, Werkman M, Fonnesbeck CJ, Goto Y, Runge MC, Sekiguchi S, Shea K, Keeling MJ, Ferrari MJ, Tildesley MJ. 2018. Real-time decision-making during emergency disease outbreaks. PLoS Computational Biology. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1006202

  5. Ghosh S, Ferrari MJ, Pathak AS, Cattadori IM. 2018. Changes in parasite traits, rather than intensity, affect the dynamics of infection under external perturbation. PLoS Computational Biology 14(6):e1006167

  6. Kundrick A, Huang Z, Carran S, Kagoli M, Grais RF, Hurtado N, Ferrari MJ. 2018. Sub-national variation in measles vaccine coverage and outbeak risk: a case study from a 2010 outbreak in Malawi. BMC Public Health 18:741.

  7. Winter AK, Wesolowski AP, Mensah KJ, Ramamonjiharisoa MB, Randriamanantena AH, Razafindratsimandresy R, Cauchemez S, Lessler J, Ferrari MJ, Metcalf CJE, Heraud JM. 2018. Revealing Measles Outbreak Risk With a Nested IgG Serosurvey in Madagascar. American Journal of Epidemiology https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwy114

  8. Harth JE, Ferrari MJ, Tooker JF, Stephenson AG. 2018. Zucchini Yellow Mosaic Virus Infection Limits Establishment and Severity of Powdery Mildew in Wild Populations of Cucurbita pepo. Frontiers in Plant Science 9: Article Number 792.

  9. Winter AK, Martinez ME, Cutts FJ, Moss WJ, Ferrari MJ, McKee A, Lessler JT, Hayford K, Wallinga J, Metcalf CJE. 2018. Benefits and challenges in using sero-prevalence data to inform models for measles and rubella elimination. The Journal of Infectious Diseases, jiy137,

  10. Carran S. Ferrari MJ, Reluga T. 2018. Unintended consequences and the paradox of control: management of emerging pathogens with age-specific virulence. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0005997

  11. Baker CM. Ferrari MJ, Shea K. 2018. Beyond dose: pulsed antibiotic treatment schedules can maintain individual benefit while reducing resistance. Scientific Reports doi:10.1038/s41598-018-24006-w

  12. Fonnesbeck CJ, Shea K, Carran S, de Moraes JC, Gregory C, Goodson JL, Ferrari MJ. 2018. Measles outbreak response decision-making under uncertainty: a retrospective analysis. Journal of the Royal Society Interface DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2017.0575

  13. Graham M, Suk JE, Takahashi S, Metcalf CJE, Jimenez AP, Prikazsky V, Ferrari MJ, Lessler JT. 2018. Challenges and Opportunities in Disease Forecasting in Outbreak Settings: A Case Study of Measles in Lola Prefecture, Guinea. American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

  14. Utazi CD, Thorley J, Alegana VA, Ferrari MJ, Takahashi S, Metcalf CJE, Lessler J, Tatem AJ. 2018. High resolution age-structured mapping of childhood vaccination coverage in low and middle income countries. Vaccine 36: 1583-1591

  15. McKee A, Shea K, Ferrari MJ. 2018. Correlation between measles vaccine doses: Implications for the maintenance of elimination. Epidemiology and Infection 146: 468-475.

  16. Winter AK, Pramanik S,Lessler J, Ferrari MJ,Grenfell BT, Metcalf CJE. 2018 Rubella vaccination in India: identifying broad consequences of vaccine introduction and key knowledge gaps. Epidemiology and Infection 146(1) 65-77

  17. Park J, Goldstein J, Haran M, Ferrari MJ. 2017. An ensemble approach to predicting the impact of vaccination on rotavirus disease in Niger. Vaccine 35(43): 5835-5841

  18. Bhattacharyya S, Ferrari MJ, Bjornstad ON. 2017. Species interactions explain may help explain the erratic periodicity of whooping cough dynamics. Epidemics https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2017.12.005

  19. Gunning CE, Ferrari MJ, Erhardt EB, Wearing HJ. 2017. Evidence of cryptic incidence in childhood diseases. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London: B DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2017.1268

  20. Ozawa S, Clark S, Portnoy A, Grewal S, Stack ML, Sinha A, Mirelman A, Franklin H, Friberg IK, Tam Y, Walker N, Clark A, Ferrari M, Suratdecha C, Sweet S, Goldie SJ, Garske T, Li M, Hansen P, Johnson HL, Walker D. 2017. Estimated economic impact of vaccinations in 73 low- and middle-income countries, 2001-2020. Bulletin of the World Health Organization

  21. Takahashi S, Metcalf CJE, Ferrari MJ, Tatem AJ, Lessler JT. 2017. The geography of measles vaccination in the African Great Lakes region. Nature Communications 8: doi:10.1038/ncomms15585

  22. Li S, Bjørnstad ON, Ferrari MJ, Mummah R ,Runge MC, Fonnesbeck CJ, Tildesley MJ, Probert WJM, and Shea K. 2017. Essential information: Uncertainty and optimal control of Ebola outbreaks. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences doi:10.1073/pnas.1617482114

  23. Li S, Ma C, Hao L, Su Q, An Z, Ma F, Xie S, Xu A, Zhang Y, Ding Z, Li H, Cairns L, Wang H, Luo H, Wang N, Li L, Ferrari MJ. 2017. Demographic transition and the dynamics of measles in six provinces in China: A modeling study. PLoS Medicine http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1002255

  24. Prada JM, Metcalf CJE, Takahashi S, Lessler J, Tatem AJ. Ferrari MJ. 2017. Demographics, epidemiology and the impact of vaccination campaigns in a measles-free world – Can elimination be maintained? Vaccine. (in press)

  25. Bradbury NV, Probert WJM, Shea K, Fonnesbeck CJ, Keeling MJ, Ferrari MJ, Tildesley MJ. 2017. Quantifying the value of perfect information in emergency vaccination campaigns. PLoS Computational Biology. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1005318

  26. Webb C, Ferrari MJ, Lindstrom T, Carpenter T, Durr T, Garner G, Jewell C, Stevenson M, Ward M, Werkman M, Backer J, Tildesley MJ. 2017. Ensemble modelling and structured decision-making to support emergency disease management. Preventive Veterinary Medicine. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.prevetmed.2017.01.003

  27. McKee A, Shea K, Ferrari MJ. 2017. Optimal vaccine schedules to maintain measles elimination with a two-dose routine policy. Epidemiology and Infection 145(1): 227.

  28. Bhattacharyya S, and Ferrari MJ. 2016. Age-specific mixing generates transient outbreak risk following critical-level vaccination. Epidemiology and Infection 145 (1): 12-22.

  29. Bharti N, Djibo A, Tatem, AJ, Grenfell BT, Ferrari MJ. 2016. Measuring populations to improve vaccination coverage. Scientific Reports 6:34541|DOI:10.1038/srep34541

  30. Harth, JE, Winsor JA, Weakland DR, Nowack KJ, Ferrari MJ, Stephenson AG. 2016. Effects of virus infection on pollen production and pollen performance: Implications for the spread of resistance alleles. American Journal of Botany 10.3732/ajb.1500165.

  31. Probert WJM, K Shea, CJ Fonnesbeck, MC Runge, TE Carpenter, S Durr, MG Garner, N Harvey, MA Stevenson, CT Webb, M Werkman, MJ Tildesley, MJ Ferrari. 2016. Decision-making for foot-and-mouth disease control: Objectives matter, Epidemics 15: 10-19.

  32. Metcalf CJE, Ferrari MJ, Grenfell BT. 2015. Understanding herd immunity. Trends in Immunology 36: 753-755.

  33. Takahashi S, CJE Metcalf, MJ Ferrari, WJ Moss, SA Truelove, AJ Tatem, BT Grenfell, J Lessler. 2015. Reduced vaccination and the risk of measles and other childhood infections post-Ebola. Science 347(6227): 1240-1242.

  34. McKee A, Ferrari MJ, Shea K. 2015. The effects of maternal immunity and age distribution on population immunity to measles. Theoretical Ecology 10.1007/s12080-014-0250-8

  35. Drake JM, Kaul RB, Alexander LW, O'Reagan SM, Kramer AM, Pulliam JT, Ferrari MJ, Park AW. 2015. Ebola cases and health system demand in Liberia. PLoS Biology DOI: 10.1371/journal.pbio.1002056

  36. Jongejans E, Skarpaas O, Ferrari MJ, Long ES, Dauer JT, Schwarz CM, Rauschert ESJ, Jabbour R, Mortensen DA, Isard SA, Lieb DA, Sezen Z, Hulting AG & Shea K. 2014. A unifying gravity framework for dispersal. Theoretical Ecology.

  37. Simmons HE, Prendeville HR, Dunham JP, Ferrari MJ, Earnest JD, Pilson D, Munkvold GP, Holmes EC, Stephenson AG. 2014. Transgenic virus-resistance in crop-wild Cucurbita pepo does not prevent vertical transmission of zucchini yellow mosaic virus, Plant Disease. DOI

  38. Lofgren E, Halloran ME, Rivers CM, Drake JM, Porco TC, Lewis B, Yang W, Vespignani A, Shaman J, Eisenberg JNS, Eisenberg MC, Marathe M, Scarpino SV, Alexander KA, Meza R, Ferrari MJ, Hyman JM, Meyers LA, Eubank S. 2014. Opinion: Mathematical models: A key tool for outbreak response. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

  39. Halloran ME, Vespignani A, Bharti N, Feldstein LR, Alexander KA, Ferrari MJ, Shaman J, Drake JM, Porco T, Eisenberg JNS, Del Valle SY, Lofgren E, Scarpino SV, Eisenberg MC, Gao D, Hyman JM, Eubank S, Longini RM. Ebola: Mobility data. Science 346(6208): 433.

  40. Shea K, Tildesley MJ, Runge MC, Fonnesbeck CJ, Ferrari MJ. 2014. Adaptive management and the value of information: learning via intervention in epidemiology, PLoS Biology DOI: 10.1371/journal.pbio.1001970

  41. Ferrari MJ, Fermon F, Nackers F, Llosa A, Magone C, Grais RF. 2014. Time is (still) of the essence: quantifying the impact of emergency meningitis vaccination response in Katsina State, Nigeria. International Health doi:10.1093/inthealth/ihu062.

  42. Minetti, A. Hurtado, N, Grais, RF, Ferrari, MJ. 2013. Reaching the hard-to-reach: nonselective versus targeted outbreak response vaccination for measles. American Journal of Epidemiology doi: 10.1093/aje/kwt236

  43. Ferrari, MJ, Grenfell BT, Strebel PM. 2013. Think globally, act locally: the role of local demographics and vaccination coverage in the dynamic response of measles infection to control. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London:

  44. Simons, E. MJ Ferrari, PM Strebel. 2012. Global reduction in measles mortality – Authors’ reply. The Lancet 380: 1304-1305.

  45. Harth, J.E., T.W. Deveney, J.A. Winsor, M.J. Ferrari and A.G. Stephenson. 2012. Background and development of a model to predict the fate of an escaped virus resistant transgene from Cucurbita pepo. Pp. 230-238. In: Cucurbitaceae 2012: Proceedings of the Xth Eucarpia Meeting on Genetics and Breeding of Cucurbitaceae. Cukurova University Press, Antalya, Turkey

  46. Jandarov R, M Haran, MJ Ferrari. 2012. A compartmental model for meningitis: separating transmission from climate effects on disease incidence. J Ag Biol Envir Stat 17(3) : 395-416.

  47. Simons E, Ferrari MJ, Fricks J, Wannamuehler K, Anand A, Burton A, Strebel P. 2012. Assessment of the 2010 global measles mortality reduction goal: results from a model of surveillance data. The Lancet S0140-6736(12)60522-4

  48. Anderson, SB. MJ Ferrari, HC Evans, SL Elliot, JJ Boomsma, DP Hughes. 2012. Disease dynamics in a specialized parasite of and societies . PLoS ONE 7(5): e36352.

  49. Chen, S, J Fricks, MJ Ferrari. 2012. Tracking measles infection through non-linear state space models. Journal of the Royal Society of Statistics, C 61(1): 117-134.

  50. Borer E. J. Antonovics, LL Kinkel, PJ Hudson, P Daszak, MJ Ferrari, KA Garrett, CR Parrish, AF Read, DM Rizzo. 2011. Bridging Taxonomc and Disciplinary Divides in Infectious Disease. EcoHealth 8: 261-267.

  51. Bharti N, H Broutin, RF Grais, MJ Ferrari, A Djibo, AJ Tatem, BT Grenfell. 2011. Spatial dynamics of meningococcal meningitis in Niger: observed patterns in comparison with measles. Epidemiology and Infection 140: 1356-65.

  52. Bharti N. AJ Tatem, MJ Ferrari, RF Grais, A Djibo, BT Grenfell. 2011. Explaining seasonal fluctuations of measles in Niger using nighttime lights imagery. Science 9 December 2011: 1424-1427.

  53. Ferrari, MJ, SE Perkins, LW Pomeroy, ON Bjørnstad. 2011. Pathogens, social networks, and the paradox of transmission scaling. Interdisciplinary Perspectives on Infectious Diseases. doi:10.1155/2011/267049

  54. Metcalf, CJE. P Klepac, MJ Ferrari, RF Grais, A Djibo, BT Grenfell. 2011. Modelling the first dose of measles vaccination. Epidemiology and Infection 139: 265-274.

  55. Yang, S., M. Ferrari, K. Shea. 2010. Pollinator Behavior Mediates Negative Interactions between Two Congeneric Invasive Plant Species. American Naturalist 177(1): 110-118.

  56. Sasu, M. M.J. Ferrari, A.G. Stephenson. 2010. Interrelationships among a Virus-Resistance Transgene, Herbivory, and a Bacterial Disease in a Wild Cucurbita. International Journal of Plant Sciences 171 (9): 1048-1058

  57. Metcalf, CJE, O.N. Bjornstad, M.J. Ferrari, P. Klepac, N. Bharti, H. Lobez-Gatell, B.T. Grenfell. 2010. The epidemiology of rubella in Mexico: seasonality, stochasticity and regional variation. Epidemiology and Infection. Sep 15: 1-10.

  58. Ferrari, M.J. A. Djibo, R.F. Grais, N. Bharti, B.T. Grenfell, O.N. Bjornstad. 2010. Rural urban gradient in seasonal forcing of measles transmission in Niger. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London: B 277: 2775-2782.

  59. Stack, J.C., D. Welch, M.J. Ferrari, B. Shapiro, B.T. Grenfell. 2010. Protocols for sampling viral sequences to study epidemic dynamics. Journal of the Royal Society: Interface 7(48): 1119-1127

  60. Bharti N, R.F. Grais, M.J. Ferrari, O.N. Bjørnstad, A. Tatem, C. McCabe, A. Djibo, B.T. Grenfell. 2010. Measles hotspots and epidemiological connectivity in Niger. Epidemiology and Infection 138(1): 108-116.

  61. Ferrari, M.J., A. Djibo, R.F. Grais, B.T. Grefell, O.N. Bjørnstad. 2010. Episodic outbreaks bias estimates of age-specific force of infection: a corrected method using measles in Niamey, Niger as an example. Epidemiology and Infection. 148: 108-116.

  62. Sasu, M, M.J. Ferrari, D. Du, J.A. Winsor, A.G. Stephenson. 2009. Indirect costs of a non-target pathogen mitigate the direct benefits of a virus resistant transgene in wild Cucurbita. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science 106: 19067-19071 -- doi: 10.1073/pnas.0905106106

  63. Perkins, S.E., M.J. Ferrari, P.J. Hudson. 2008. The effects of social structure and sex-biased transmission on macroparasite infection. Parasitology doi: 10.1017/S0031182008000449

  64. Ferrari, M.J., R.F. Grais, N. Bharti, A.J.K. Conlan, O.N. Bjørrnstad, L.J. Wolfson, P.J. Guerin, A. Djibo, B.T. Grenfell. 2008. The dynamics of measles in sub-Saharan Africa. Nature 451: 679-685.

  65. Grais, R.F., A.J.K. Conlan, M.J. Ferrari, O.N. Bjørnstad, B.T. Grenfell, A. Djibo, P. Strebel. 2008. Time is of the Essence: Exploring a Measles Outbreak Response Vaccination in Niamey, Niger. Journal of the Royal Society Interface 5: 67-74. DOI 10.1098/rsif.2007.1038

  66. Finkelman, B.S., C. Viboud, K. Koelle, M.J. Ferrari, N. Bharti, G.T. Grenfell. 2007. Global Patterns in Seasonal Activity of Influenza A/H3N2, A/H1N1, and B from 1997 to 2005: Viral Coexistence and Latitudinal Gradients. PLoS ONE 2(12): e1296. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0001296.

  67. Graham, A. I.M. Cattadori, J. O. Lloyd-Smith, M.J. Ferrari, O.N. Bjørnstad. 2007. Transmission consequences of co-infection: cytokines writ large? Trends in Parasitology. 23: 284-291

  68. Ferrari, M.J., D. Du, J.A. Winsor, A.G. Stephenson. 2007. Inbreeding depression of plant quality reduces incidence of an insect-borne pathogen in a wild gourd. International Journal of Plant Sciences. 168: 603-610

  69. Ferrari, M.J., A.G. Stephenson, M.C. Mescher, C.M. De Moraes. 2006. Inbreeding effects on blossom volatiles in Cucurbita pepo ssp. texana. American Journal of Botany 93: 1768-1774.

  70. Ferrari, M.J., O.N. Bjørnstad, J.L. Partain, J. Antonovics. 2006. A gravity model for the spread of a pollinator-borne plant pathogen. The American Naturalist. 168: 294-303

  71. Ferrari, M.J. S. Bansal, L.A. Meyers, O.N. Bjørnstad. 2006. Network frailty and the geometry of herd immunity. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 273: 2743-2748.

  72. Grais, R.F., M.J. Ferrari, C. Dubray O.N. Bjørnstad, B.T. Grenfell, A. Djibo, F. Fermont, P.J. Guerin. 2006. Estimating the reproductive ratio for a measles epidemic in Niamey, Niger: lessons for intervention. Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. 100(9): 867-873.

  73. Ferrari, M.J., Bjørnstad,O.N. and Dobson, A.P. 2005. Estimation and inference for R0 of an infectious disease using a removal method. Mathematical Boisciences. 198(1): 14-26.

  74. Ferrari, M.J. and R.A. Garrott. 2002. Bison and elk: brucellosis seroprevalence on a shared winter range. Journal of Wildlife Management 66(4): 1246-1254.